The Korean Crisis: Playing Devil's Advocate

At this point in the latest Korean Crisis, it seems to us in America that North Korea has committed a foul and deserves to be punished. Given the way the North Korean and Kim Jong-Il have been portrayed in the U.S., the crisis seems as if it's been a long time coming. Kim Jong-Il is obviously a maniac and its a matter of time before he triggers world-wide crisis. It's fair to say he's been demonized at least as much as Saddam Hussein.

And such generalizations have some footing as Kim Jong-Il plays a dangerous game, now armed with nuclear weapons and operating a country which has never signed a formal peace agreement with its ideological opponents to the south. In the West, it would appear that Kim Jong-Il is not a rational actor on the stage of world politics and diplomacy.














But perhaps such generalizations are not true. Perhaps Kim Jong-Il is in fact a rational actor and not the lunatic that the American public, and possibly leadership, thinks. From the lessons of history we learn that even the great enemy of America, Adolf Hitler, was not in fact a maniacal leader drunk with power. He acted with a certain rationale that was little understood, especially in the West, and failure to understand it led to massive diplomatic and strategic errors on the part of the Allies, especially Great Britain and France (appeasement) and the Soviet Union (unpreparedness on the eve of Barbarossa). By no means do I argue that war was avoidable, Hitler was intent on that, but the shape and dynamic of the war that occurred was not unavoidable. Simply put, better understanding of Hitler's logic and rationale could have prevented numerous tragedies from occurring and drastically shortened the war; especially considering Mein Kampf spelled it out with little room for doubt.

But does Kim Jong-Il have a 'mein kampf'? Does he spell out his intentions for the West and the world to see? Well, not entirely to my knowledge. It's no secret North Korea is a paranoid and guarded county with little trust for anyone, especially the West. But they have expressed their opinions, intentions and goals publicly (albeit phrased through the Marxist lexicon so familiar since 1917). On one of my more favorite blogs which investigates the Korean Peninsula and relations with the North, 38 North, the author does an excellent job of analyzing the situation and calling for prudence. Kim Jong-Il and North Korea can be understood and it is vital to realize that North Korean actions have a cause and Kim Jong-Il and his state operate according to a rationale. The current crisis is indeed a disaster for peace on the peninsula, but the future is not set in stone.

Here's the article:
Recommended citation: Georgy Toloraya, “Peace or War: Do We Have to Choose?” 38 North, Washington, D.C.: U.S.-Korea Institute at SAIS, Johns Hopkins University, May 27, 2010. Online at: www.38north.org/?p=795.