"President Obama fully supports President Lee in his handling of the ROKS Cheonan incident and the objective investigation that followed. The measures that the government of the Republic of Korea announced today are called for and entirely appropriate. The Republic of Korea can continue to count on the full support of the United States, as President Obama has made clear.
"Specifically, we endorse President Lee’s demand that North Korea immediately apologize and punish those responsible for the attack, and, most importantly, stop its belligerent and threatening behavior. U.S. support for South Korea’s defense is unequivocal, and the President has directed his military commanders to coordinate closely with their Republic of Korea counterparts to ensure readiness and to deter future aggression. We will build on an already strong foundation of excellent cooperation between our militaries and explore further enhancements to our joint posture on the Peninsula as part of our ongoing dialogue.
"As President Lee stated in his address earlier today, the Republic of Korea intends to bring this issue to the United Nations Security Council. We support this move. Secretary Clinton and Ambassador Rice are each consulting very closely with their Korean counterparts, as well as with Japan, China, and other UN Security Council member states in order to reach agreement on the steps in the Council.
"In response to the pattern of North Korean provocation and defiance of international law, the President has directed U.S. government agencies to review their existing authorities and policies related to the DPRK. This review is aimed at ensuring that we have adequate measures in place and to identify areas where adjustments would be appropriate.
"The U.S. will continue to work with the Republic of Korea and other allies and partners to reduce the threat that North Korea poses to regional stability. Secretary Clinton is currently in Beijing and she will travel to Seoul for discussions with President Lee and his senior advisors on May 26 before reporting back to the President on her consultations in the region. Secretary Gates is in close contact with ROK Defense Minister Kim and will meet with him and other counterparts at the June 4-6 Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore. President Obama and President Lee agreed to meet in Canada at the time of the G-20 Summit."
One is reminded of the blank check issued by Germany to Austria in the summer days of 1914. It was then that a similar incident, the assassination of the heir to the Austrian throne, provoked a similar response from Austria towards its neighbor to the south, Serbia, i.e. an apology and threat of punitive action. However, much is different nearly 100 years after 1914 and history may not repeat itself, but the threat of such a repetition is breathtaking.Yes, the United States has, as of today, thrown their entire support behind South Korea as required by treaty; a striking parallel to Germany's situation with Austria in 1914. By doing so, Germany assured that a regional conflict between Austria and Serbia would descend into World War. The system of treaties in 1914, designed to prevent war had disastrously resulted in the most terrible war the world had then seen. Does the system of treaties between South Korea and the United States therefore mean America is due for a return to the Korean Peninsula?
Not necessarily.
The primary difference between 2010 and 1914 is that instead of unilaterally attacking their neighbor to the North with the support of a major world power, South Korea is taking the situation to the United Nations. After the UN failed to resolve the Iraqi-American crisis in 2002-03, it seemed the UN was irrelevant to world politics. However, at this point in time, the successor to the League of Nations appears to be working exactly as intended. It has prevented unilateral action on the part of South Korea armed with full American support.
As Sec. of State Clinton corresponds with her counterparts in China, Japan, South Korea and most likely Russia this week, the tragic chain of events that resulted in World War I seem to have been averted. In 1914 the blank check issued by Germany assured Austria would take action against its neighbor which had offended it. In 2010 the same blank check issued by America to South Korea has not assured that South Korea would initiate conflict with North Korea.
But don't celebrate just yet.
The effectiveness of the UN shined forth in the first Gulf War as multinational military action was taken against Iraq, resulting in heavy loss of life on the Iraqi side and a political situation that would be only resolved 12 years later in a long and arduous war. Once it has been revealed where the other world powers stand on the Cheonan incident will we start to see what the future holds for the Korea peninsula and likely the world. Make no doubt about it, South Korea has called for punitive action against North Korea and already has the full backing of the United States. The question that remains is not whether there will be a conflict but what shape the conflict is going to take. The year 1914 shows us the worst scenario that could erupt from such a political situation, let us hope that the lessons of 2010 prove to teach otherwise.
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