Pax Americana?

In response to the article here...

This whole notion of a Pax Americana, I think, is a flawed one. Was the 20th century truly the American century? Hardly. 1/5 of the century was spent in isolationism, and half of it in direct competition with the Soviet Union in which the USA repeatedly failed to win in Korea, China and S.E. Asia. Ultimately influence in Iran would be lost as well. The whole of Asia minus some islands off the coast and, maybe, Pakistan, was outside the influence of the USA. Influence in Africa was hardly solidified and only half of Europe was ever, barely somewhat, in league with the USA. How exactly a century could be defined as American when 80 miles offshore, its archenemy is deploying nuclear warheads?

In short, there never was an American century. Calling the 20th century the American Century is like pushing the Pax Romana back 200 years to when Carthage was still around. There was a period of time from 1990-2010, 80 years short of a century, when America stood unopposed by any major power and this short period was more the product of the vacuum effect of the collapse of the Soviet Union. A vacuum being more suitably filled by the regional powers who's backyard it is in.

The rise of China and India, the competition of the EU and resurrection of Russia are a return to the normalcy of a competitive world. The 'American century' was a mere 20 year hiccup where the USA faced no real competition and these characteristics can not be applied across the span of the 20th century.

China in the footsteps of the Kaiser

I thought this was a fascinating read and generally I agree with Mr. Mead's conclusions.

"Is China the best friend of American power?

Beijing’s recent missteps in Asia — moving ahead with reactor sales to troubled Pakistan and crudely threatening Japan over the arrest of a Chinese fishing captain — are swiftly solidifying America’s Asian alliances. The new Japanese government came into office hoping to rebalance Japan’s foreign policy and reduce tensions with China. That dream is now dead. And China’s deepening relationship with Pakistan, intended in part as a counter to America’s nuclear opening to India, is driving Asia’s other emerging nuclear power closer than ever into the arms of America (and Japan). South Korea, once drifting peacefully toward China, has moved back towards the United States following China’s support for Pyongyang after the sinking of a South Korean naval boat.

In all this there is one clear theme. America isn’t containing China. China is containing itself. As China’s economy grows and its military develops new capacities, it is looking for ways to turn that potential power into actual power over events. In the past, China has tried to attract its neighbors into its orbit with sweeteners like trade deals and aid."

Read the rest here.

France and her colonies

The days of the French flag flying over foreign capitals and colored maps may be gone, but the old colonial empires linger on in a strange way. France launched a counter terrorism operation in Niger, a former colony, to rescue seven hostages from a group that calls itself Al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb. While this is far from the military levels seen during France's wars of decolonization or the current American operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, it is none-the-less significant as it shows the continued policy of French military intervention in its former African colonies. Since 1960, there have been 46 French military operations in its former African colonies, and the former empire continues to maintain bases across its former colonies. How this recently sparked conflict will play out against Al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb remains to be seen.

On the recent events in Niger.

On the impact of Turkey's Referendum

This article looks into the impact of Turkey's recently passed referendum to argue that true democracy has finally begun in Turkey in place of what the author refers to "Facade Democracy."

http://www.todayszaman.com/tz-web/columnists-221677-the-end-of-facade-democracy-in-turkey.html

Big changes for Turkey

The above video breaks down the newly accepted changes in Turkey's constitution.

Japanese-Chinese relations souring

And its all over Fishing boat. But often this little trivialities simple scratch the surface of deeper resentment and anxiety between two nations. According to the article, this is tied to Senkaku Islands dispute between Japan and China.

Read More.

Hezbollah South of the Border?

Well, that's what a certain Representative in Congress wants to know. Is Hezbollah operating in Mexico? She gives a line of evidence pointing to the possibility, such as Mexican Drug Cartels using car bombs and Hezbollah agents purchasing large amounts of drugs from FARC in Columbia, though nothing seems conclusive yet. The article is good food for thought because the War on Terror just might be getting a little too close to home.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2010/sep/1/hezbollah-car-bombs-on-our-border/

Railroad Diplomacy

Apparently China is planning a high speed railroad to Bangkok. The link will connect Bangkok to a junction in Laos and then into South China and ultimately Beijing. Generally speaking, transportation is a symbol and reality of power. As they used to say, Mille viae ducunt homines per saecula Romam.

Read the article on Chinese Railroad Diplomacy here.

A European Military

Well, not exactly. But it's close. It seems that Britain and France will be sharing aircraft carriers if all goes according to a plan currently being drafted by Cameron and Sarkozy. The details must be fascinating as I'm not entirely sure how such a plan would work out. I think that it must presume peace for the foreseeable future and that the only reason either power even needs carriers is for peacetime power projection and to not look like a couple of dunces next to the other world powers. It's a gamble and I'mnot entirely certain how it's going to work out.

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/3118476/UK-and-France-tobr-share-aircraft-carriers.html

Lessons from China's economic ascendecy

I thought this article really summed up the important facts regarding China's overtaking of Japan as the world's number 2 economy. A number of lessons are going to be learned from China's rise, and even more mis-lessons are going to be taken from it as well. The most important mis-lesson is: Authoritarianism works.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/08/29/AR2010082902898.html

More on Venezuela

Iconic Photos has the banned image of Venezuela's Morgue. Read and see it here.

Venezuela more deadly than Iraq or Mexico

Well, according to this article it is. The interesting difference between the two are that in Iraq and Mexico, the murder rates are accompanied by political instability whereas in Venezuela, the government has a much tighter control over its opposition.

Read about it here.

The Taiwan-China issue

Is the Taiwan-China dispute heating up? Recent releases from the US military have stated a growing concern for China's military endeavors and concerns over the sovereignty of Taiwan is growing. This short article on what the USA needs to do if it is to avoid conflict with China over Taiwan and I whole-hearted agree. The primary problem is American ambiguity over the status of Taiwan and by not committing to its sovereignty the USA is inviting China to take a chance to regain its lost province.

5 barriers to a Russian-Western partnership

I thought this was an interesting read coming out of the Moscow Times. Essentially it works though the main barriers between Russian and western cooperation, highlighting a number of items which this blog has covered. Such as, the NATO expansion in eastern Europe and attempts by the USA to dominate the former states of the Soviet Union, Kyrgyzstan or Georgia for example.

Read the article here.

Arms Sales and Peace in the Middle East

This article caught my attention over at RealClearWorld.com.

To sum it up, it details the pending sale of arms to Saudi Arabia as part of a new US policy to build up regional alliances to counter an Iranian threat. It also makes mention of the initial Israeli hostility to such a sale, fearing that the US weapons could be used against Israel, rather than Iran. However, Israel has backed down its opposition in the face of a new Iranian threat, which it apparently deems far greater.

So it has occurred to me that the latest US solution to the middle eastern problem is to create a common enemy and a sort of little entente in the middle east to counter what it regards as a threat to its interests abroad.

However things aren't so pleasant in the middle east for such a 'little entente' to work out so smoothly. Recently, US-Turkish relations are souring over issues like the recent flotilla incident and the recurring Armenian Genocide bill. And in Iraq, the situation is threatening to prevent US withdrawal, after all, does the United States truly want a weak neighbor on the border with Iran? In order to prevent the problem which plagued the original Little Entente, the USA is going to need to have strong nations to work with towards a common goal, as seen with the recent strengthening of Saudi Arabia. But pulling out of Iraq too early could prove fatal and provoke conflict between the two nations which have a past. It is certainly a juggling act the USA has taken on, but whether or not it will pay off remains to be seen.

India is preparing for another war with China

Well, not immediately, but it is China they have in mind with the latest upgrades to their military. While India's primary concern is and will likely remain in counter-insurgency, they do need to be prepared for interstate conflict. Pakistan, obviously, seems to be the more likely candidate than China given their disputed occupation of Kashmir and the deteriorating situation in Islamabad. But let's not forget that China has obtained for itself a little chunk of Kashmir and Arunachal Pradesh. India needs to be prepared for China in any case.

Read the article here.

Using Google Earth to Spy on N. Korea

I thought this was an interesting site. The creators use Google Earth to create a heavily notated map of North Korea, pointing out the locations of electricity grids, anti-air batteries, railroads, ect.

Check it out here:
http://www.nkeconwatch.com/north-korea-uncovered-google-earth/

China reacts to Hanoi-Washington Deal

BEIJING: China, which has recently dominated the security situation in North Asia, appeared shaken by a surprise move by the US administration to begin negotiations for a civilian nuclear deal with Vietnam.

Washington has confirmed it in negotiation a deal with Vietnam similar to the one it has signed with India. The move has implications for India, which faced Chinese resistance to its nuclear deal with the US. India is also wary about what it regards as China's non-transparent move to sell two more nuclear reactors to Pakistan.

Read the article here...

Washington and Hanoi to reach Nuclear Agreement

"The US is said to be negotiating a controversial agreement with Vietnam to provide nuclear fuel and technology without the usual constraints on enriching uranium to prevent proliferation.

The deal has been under discussion for several months following Hanoi's announcement of plans to build 14 nuclear stations over the next 20 years, according to the Wall Street Journal."

Read the rest here...

I found this an interesting read considering the USA and Vietnam's past as well as the current situation with Iran. Apparently, the USA is willing to work with totalitarian states to spread nuclear technology. Given all the rhetoric over the past ten years (note that talks began in 2001 under Bush) you'd think such a move would never happen...

Russian Defense Spending to rise 60%!

Since Putin took control of Russia it seemed that the crumbled Soviet Empire of the 1990s was not going to last. Russia's latest move in strengthening its global position has been to increase defense spending by 60%! As anticipated, Russia is continuing to rise to take the place of the former Soviet Union.

Missile Shields in Europe

The U.S. is nearing the point of activating a missile defense shield in Southern Europe, the Washington Post reports. What strikes me as interesting about the whole European Missile Defense Shield program is that is smacks of wholehearted American Imperialism.

Allegedly, Iran is the primary concern in this situation but everyone knows that it is designed against Russia. What purpose would Iran have in launching a missile at Bulgaria, Italy or even Germany or France (the latter of the two did not participate in the Second Gulf War). The intent is the same as it was when Reagan pitched the idea in the 80s, limit Russia's capability in Europe.

Furthermore, why is the United States defending Southern Europe from Iran? Well, obviously there is a strong economic interest in the region and its quite valuable to the United States. But the method in which the U.S. is taking such proactive and costly measures to defend the European Union creates the illusion that these are American States we're protecting. Granted there are U.S. bases in Germany which could be targeted by Iran, the very fact that there continue to be U.S. bases in Germany 65 years after the end of World War II reinforces the notion that American leadership regards these European states as much more than foreign states.

When it is considered that these measures are designed to protect Europe from Russia, the situation takes on a whole new light. Essentially, America is trying to reconstruct the Cold War situation and put Europe in its back pocket again. This is especially important considering so many of the former communist states are now included in America's sphere of influence. The missile shield is a consolidation of power in Europe after post-Cold War gains.

On a side note, I find Barack Obama's position on the shield worthy of note. He campaigned on the premise of reducing America's activism abroad, or at least produced the illusion of this. He rejected the Bush style missile shield in Europe during the campaigning season and before, but once he'd achieved the high office his position resembles Bush's more than it contrasts with it. Upon taking office he elaborated that his disagreements with the Bush admin over the missile shield were that it was too rigid and he favored a more flexible system. Bush had wanted bases in Poland, much to Russia's chagrin. Obama wanted to remove these bases to improve relations with Russia... but only to place them in the Czech Republic and Bulgaria instead... much to the same intended effect as Bush. These developments regarding the missile shield prove that the Obama administration is much more Imperial than it seems...

Tensions rise between Columbia and Venezuela

A row has been developing between Venezuela and Columbia on the grounds that Columbia was stirring up a war with Venezuela, alleging that FARC rebels were being hidden in Venezuela. Chavez naturally denied it and cut off diplomatic ties, usually a sign that war was imminent. However, Chavez pulled this stunt two years ago during the South American Diplomatic Crisis of 2008 and it should be noted that tensions were lowered. While I don't think there will be a war at this point, I think the growing tension between Columbia and Venezuela is worth noting. I think it is likely that conflict will develop over time as long as Venezuela is anti-US and Columbia is well supported by the US.

More on Chavez breaking diplomatic ties...

On a another note, it seems FARC is willing to speak with the new Columbian leadership in hopes to resolve the 46-year long conflict. We'll have to see where this goes as Columbia has been making strong inroads against the rebels in recent times and may not be willing to settle.

More on FARC and Columbia...

Double Digit Economic growth for Afghanistan

Upon hearing this, I'm as skeptical as anyone. Really, Afghanistan has growth comparable to the rates of India and China? Well, for one, as the article notes, they're starting much lower than either of the two Asian Giants. But its interesting to hear such news coming from landlocked and war torn country and somewhat hopeful as well. Obviously the biggest prerequisite for a growing economy is political stability, which has been a problem for Afghanistan for most its existence. American support is crucial and if Obama gets his way, then America is out as of 2012; or at least in terms of active military presence. This says nothing for the future of American bases though. Whether the nation can pull out of the trend is dependent on quite a lot of other factors, but the New York Post article sheds a hopeful light on the future of Afghanistan.

Read the Article here

Pakistan supporting the Taliban insurgency

Or at least that's what it seems based on a new cache of documents released by Wikileaks. According to the documents, which are classified as reliable by the US military, Pakistan's Intelligence and Spy Agency are working directly with the Taliban and Al Qaeda to coordinate resistance and suicide attacks. As much as I dislike Obama's foreign policy for dealing with Afghanistan, he ran on the premise of expanding the fight into Pakistan, which he did with the bombing of several regions. I wonder if his campaign promises are going to take him further into Pakistan's borders than he anticipated.

The New York Times sums up the release here.

The last dictator in Europe.

Looks like Lukashenko's time is up and Russia is making its move against the former Soviet Republic. It's no secret Russia has had Belarus in its pocket for some time now, in fact, the two are part of one "union state" though each has its own leadership. Russia is going to have to careful in their plans, to completely absorb Belarus might ward off some of the other nations which have shown recent interest in the "union state" or "customs union," namely Ukraine. But its obvious Lukashenko's time is up and Russia is ready for new leadership, for which ever reasons they have.

But the part that most interests me is the method Russia is using to dethrone the puppet President, they're highlighting his human rights abuses and authoritarianism and rallying the support of the Russian people. They did the same thing in Kyrgyzstan, as the article has noted. It seems now, Russia is growing increasingly capable with the power of the people.

Read the article here

Japanese-Russian Relations

I thought this a fascinating article in the Moscow Times by the former defense minister of Japan, Yuriko Koike on the topic of the Russian occupied Chishima Islands. On the whole I doubt that the Russian government will give the islands back or consider such a thing lightly or any time in the future. But it is interesting to note that the issue is still in the minds of the Japanese. As Asia heats up over the next decades, this issue may grow in its significance.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/article/russias-lost-opportunity-with-japan/410824.html

Venezuela severs relations with Columbia

It seems Venezuela has cut off diplomatic relations with its neighbor Columbia, which in the olden days this meant war. Now, nations go great periods of time without diplomatic negotiations and I don't honestly think this immediate action will lead to war. However, I think it is an indication of the coming conflict between the two South American states, whether overt of covert. Columbia has the backing of the USA and seems to be doing well for itself in recent times. Venezuela, on the other hand, appears to be in decline from its previous heights and has found some support from rivals of the USA. A war in the region would be disastrous for both states, let's hope it doesn't happen.

http://warnewsupdates.blogspot.com/2010/07/venezuela-breaks-diplomatic-relations.html

Egyptian President Mubarak terminally ill?

Read here.

Quite an interesting and possibly scary notion that the Egyptian president may be on his way out. Egypt is not the most stable country an a succession crisis is not what the region needs at this time. Although, perhaps Mubarak has taken steps to avoid such a crisis given that he's been much much more aware of his condition than it seems the rest of us have. Time will tell...

Big Brother

The Washington Post did an in-depth report on the ever growing top-secret world of the US government. The article is definitely worth a read, or if you're hurried a quick scan; but it should not be ignored. It does an excellent job in expressing how unwieldy and ineffective America's secret intelligence agency has become by focusing on the various problems plaguing the top-secret world. It covers the turf battles amongst the agencies, the problems of an overdose of information, the budget problems and the greatest problem of all: Congress keeps pumping money into it.

A particular quotation from Major-General John Custer caught my eye. It sums up the situation well, "...after 4 1/2 years, this organization had never produced one shred of information that helped me prosecute three wars!"

And a most accurate assement by the Washington Post from early in the article furthers the case, "...lack of focus, not lack of resources, was at the heart of the Fort Hood shooting that left 13 dead, as well as the Christmas Day bomb attempt thwarted not by the thousands of analysts employed to find lone terrorists but by an alert airline passenger who saw smoke coming from his seatmate."

More here...

Colombia coming into its own

In a time of emerging-market juggernauts, Colombia gets little notice. Its $244 billion economy is only the fifth-largest in Latin America, a trifle next to Brazil, the $2 trillion regional powerhouse. Yet against all odds Colombia has become the country to watch in the hemisphere. In the past eight years the nation of 45 million has gone from a crime- and drug-addled candidate for failed state to a prospering dynamo. The once sluggish economy is on a roll. Oil and gas production are surging, and Colombia’s MSCI index jumped 15 percent between January and June, more than any other stock market this year.

Read the rest here

Is the US deploying misiles outside of China?

Possibly. Time Magazine has an interesting article on the Ohio-Class submarines now appearing on China's border. These subs are outfitted with Tomahawk Cruise missiles, as opposed to the Nuclear Trident missiles they carried during the Cold War war. According to Bonnie Glaser, cited in the article, the US is bolstering it's forces in the Pacific and naturally, the regional power, China, is going to notice.

Here's the article:

Photos from Afghanistan

A collection of photos coming out of America's longest war courtesy of the Big Picture.

http://inapcache.boston.com/universal/site_graphics/blogs/bigpicture/afghan_06_30_10/a01_24008185.jpg

A history of US defense spending

Read the full article here...

Petraeus will get whatever he wants?

Well, well, well — where have we seen this before? The indiscreet U.S. commander whose tongue digs his own grave. The stunning resignation submitted within hours of the magazine's online posting of the story. And General David Petraeus — yet again — as the go-to choice as America's turnaround specialist. Amidst all the nonstop chatter from pundits, politicians, and former ambassadors, allow me to distance myself from the familiar situation I was in with Admiral William Fallon and sift through the tea leaves to look ahead at Petraeus's new gig. Because there are magazine stories, and then there is war. And because — who knows? — Afghanistan may be a lot better off, and Obama may have picked his replacement in more ways than one.

Read the full article here...

U.S. and Israeli war ships headed to Iran?

Egypt allowed at least one Israeli and 11 American warships to pass through the Suez Canal as an Iranian flotilla approaches Gaza. Egypt closed the canal to protect the ships with thousands of soldiers, according to the British-based Arabic language newspaper Al Quds al-Arabi.

One day prior to the report on Saturday, Voice of Israel government radio reported that the Egyptian government denied an Israeli request not to allow the Iranian flotilla to use the Suez Canal to reach Gaza, in violation of the Israeli sea embargo on the Hamas-controlled area.

More here...

The Covert War in South America

U.S. Senator Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) threatened to issue subpoenas against the U.S. Defense and State Departments last month if they continue to refuse to accurately account for billions of dollars spent on private contractors assisting Washington in the 'war on drugs' in Latin America. But McCaskill's concerns raise broader questions about oversight and transparency of a controversial industry and its ever expanding role in Washington's foreign policy. "We asked for this information from the State Department and the Defense Department (DoD) more than three months ago. Despite our repeated requests, neither Department has been able to answer our questions yet," said U.S. Senator Claire McCaskill at a Senate hearing on May 20. More here...

Clear skies for Israel over Saudi Arabia

"Saudi Arabia has conducted tests to stand down its air defences to enable Israeli jets to make a bombing raid on Iran’s nuclear facilities, The Times can reveal.

In the week that the UN Security Council imposed a new round of sanctions on Tehran, defence sources in the Gulf say that Riyadh has agreed to allow Israel to use a narrow corridor of its airspace in the north of the country to shorten the distance for a bombing run on Iran"

More here...

North Korea triple feature

This is far from a professional estimate coming out of the department of defense, but rather a well compiled message board post over at militaryphotos.net. It's quite interesting, even if you just look at the pictures. So if you want to know what war with North Korea would look like, this will give you an idea.

Bluffer's Guide: North Korea Strikes!

And as an added bonus, the New York Times ran an article on how North Korean policy ruins the lives of its citizens. Here are the first few paragraphs,

"YANJI, China — Like many North Koreans, the construction worker lived in penury. His state employer had not paid him for so long that he had forgotten his salary. Indeed, he paid his boss to be listed as a dummy worker so that he could leave his work site. Then he and his wife could scrape out a living selling small bags of detergent on the black market. It hardly seemed that life could get worse. And then, one Saturday afternoon last November, his sister burst into his apartment in Chongjin with shocking news: the North Korean government had decided to drastically devalue the nation’s currency. The family’s life savings, about $1,560, had been reduced to about $30."

Read the rest here...

Subsequently, the article reminded me of a series of photos I saw over at Boston.com on life in North Korea.

Peering into North Korea

Recent Scenes from North Korea

Kim Jong-il's key ally dies

"Ri Je-Gang, the first vice director of the Central Committee of the Worker’s Party and widely seen as the strongman of the reclusive North Korean leader’s regime, died in a car crash shortly before 1 am on Wednesday morning, North Korean media reported on Sunday.

The death of Ri, who was 80, came just days before an unprecedented second session of the Supreme People’s Assembly, at which North Korean watchers had anticipated that the ailing Kim would formally name his inexperienced son, Kim Jong-Un 27, as his successor."

Read the full Article...

My comments: Given the crisis revolving around the Choenan, a power struggle in North Korea might further escalate the situation beyond China, the US or South Korea's control. With the Supreme People's Assembly just days away the death of Kim Jong-Il's number two man is certainly an untimely and unfortunate blow to his regime. We'll have to see what the future holds for the Korean Peninsula.

Russia agrees on Sanctions for Iran?

Calling Iran's nuclear stance "irresponsible, Russia's president said Iran's leadership needs to heed an international community now in agreement on sanctions against that country, a Russian state news agency reported.

"Nobody wants sanctions," Russian President Dmitry Medvedev told reporters on Saturday during a visit to Germany, where he met with Chancellor Angela Merkel. "But in some cases, it is necessary to agree on them."

More here...

My comments: There's been speculation as to whether the Obama admin has come to some sort of agreement with Russia regarding western expansion in Eastern Europe (Namely Ukraine) in exchange for support for a tougher stance on Iran. Russia's new position is certainly a change from their previous talk, indicating there was some sort of deal/arrangement struck.

Sanctioning Burma

The site Guernica magazine has an interesting article on the effectiveness of sanctions against the Burmese government. Here is an except:

"Morten Pedersen:South Africa was actually a partial democracy. Blacks were not involved in that democracy. But there was a white constituency that had influence on government decisions. In Burma, there is no such constituency. There’s no one outside the army that has influence on policy decisions. There’s a close business community. But while they’re close to the generals, they have no political influence. In South Africa, there was a large business community that had direct influence through electoral processes and beyond that. And South Africa was also heavily integrated into the global economy, and the global cultural community. The whites were really hurt by being shunned by what was in fact their peer group in Europe. So they were hurt, culturally they felt isolated, the shaming worked, and the economic pressure worked. And they then put pressure on the government. That may not have changed otherwise.

Guernica: In Burma, those elements are not there?

Morten Pedersen: The Burmese generals have no affinity at all with the people who are sanctioning them. Culturally, there’s no link whatsoever."

And the remainder of the article can be found here...

The Korean Crisis: Playing Devil's Advocate

At this point in the latest Korean Crisis, it seems to us in America that North Korea has committed a foul and deserves to be punished. Given the way the North Korean and Kim Jong-Il have been portrayed in the U.S., the crisis seems as if it's been a long time coming. Kim Jong-Il is obviously a maniac and its a matter of time before he triggers world-wide crisis. It's fair to say he's been demonized at least as much as Saddam Hussein.

And such generalizations have some footing as Kim Jong-Il plays a dangerous game, now armed with nuclear weapons and operating a country which has never signed a formal peace agreement with its ideological opponents to the south. In the West, it would appear that Kim Jong-Il is not a rational actor on the stage of world politics and diplomacy.














But perhaps such generalizations are not true. Perhaps Kim Jong-Il is in fact a rational actor and not the lunatic that the American public, and possibly leadership, thinks. From the lessons of history we learn that even the great enemy of America, Adolf Hitler, was not in fact a maniacal leader drunk with power. He acted with a certain rationale that was little understood, especially in the West, and failure to understand it led to massive diplomatic and strategic errors on the part of the Allies, especially Great Britain and France (appeasement) and the Soviet Union (unpreparedness on the eve of Barbarossa). By no means do I argue that war was avoidable, Hitler was intent on that, but the shape and dynamic of the war that occurred was not unavoidable. Simply put, better understanding of Hitler's logic and rationale could have prevented numerous tragedies from occurring and drastically shortened the war; especially considering Mein Kampf spelled it out with little room for doubt.

But does Kim Jong-Il have a 'mein kampf'? Does he spell out his intentions for the West and the world to see? Well, not entirely to my knowledge. It's no secret North Korea is a paranoid and guarded county with little trust for anyone, especially the West. But they have expressed their opinions, intentions and goals publicly (albeit phrased through the Marxist lexicon so familiar since 1917). On one of my more favorite blogs which investigates the Korean Peninsula and relations with the North, 38 North, the author does an excellent job of analyzing the situation and calling for prudence. Kim Jong-Il and North Korea can be understood and it is vital to realize that North Korean actions have a cause and Kim Jong-Il and his state operate according to a rationale. The current crisis is indeed a disaster for peace on the peninsula, but the future is not set in stone.

Here's the article:
Recommended citation: Georgy Toloraya, “Peace or War: Do We Have to Choose?” 38 North, Washington, D.C.: U.S.-Korea Institute at SAIS, Johns Hopkins University, May 27, 2010. Online at: www.38north.org/?p=795.

America's Blank Check?

Today the white house issued their full support for South Korea in its move to take the Cheonan incident to the United Nations in a request for punitive action against the People's Republic of North Korea. The statement reads:

"President Obama fully supports President Lee in his handling of the ROKS Cheonan incident and the objective investigation that followed. The measures that the government of the Republic of Korea announced today are called for and entirely appropriate. The Republic of Korea can continue to count on the full support of the United States, as President Obama has made clear.

"Specifically, we endorse President Lee’s demand that North Korea immediately apologize and punish those responsible for the attack, and, most importantly, stop its belligerent and threatening behavior. U.S. support for South Korea’s defense is unequivocal, and the President has directed his military commanders to coordinate closely with their Republic of Korea counterparts to ensure readiness and to deter future aggression. We will build on an already strong foundation of excellent cooperation between our militaries and explore further enhancements to our joint posture on the Peninsula as part of our ongoing dialogue.

"As President Lee stated in his address earlier today, the Republic of Korea intends to bring this issue to the United Nations Security Council. We support this move. Secretary Clinton and Ambassador Rice are each consulting very closely with their Korean counterparts, as well as with Japan, China, and other UN Security Council member states in order to reach agreement on the steps in the Council.

"In response to the pattern of North Korean provocation and defiance of international law, the President has directed U.S. government agencies to review their existing authorities and policies related to the DPRK. This review is aimed at ensuring that we have adequate measures in place and to identify areas where adjustments would be appropriate.

"The U.S. will continue to work with the Republic of Korea and other allies and partners to reduce the threat that North Korea poses to regional stability. Secretary Clinton is currently in Beijing and she will travel to Seoul for discussions with President Lee and his senior advisors on May 26 before reporting back to the President on her consultations in the region. Secretary Gates is in close contact with ROK Defense Minister Kim and will meet with him and other counterparts at the June 4-6 Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore. President Obama and President Lee agreed to meet in Canada at the time of the G-20 Summit."

One is reminded of the blank check issued by Germany to Austria in the summer days of 1914. It was then that a similar incident, the assassination of the heir to the Austrian throne, provoked a similar response from Austria towards its neighbor to the south, Serbia, i.e. an apology and threat of punitive action. However, much is different nearly 100 years after 1914 and history may not repeat itself, but the threat of such a repetition is breathtaking.

Yes, the United States has, as of today, thrown their entire support behind South Korea as required by treaty; a striking parallel to Germany's situation with Austria in 1914. By doing so, Germany assured that a regional conflict between Austria and Serbia would descend into World War. The system of treaties in 1914, designed to prevent war had disastrously resulted in the most terrible war the world had then seen. Does the system of treaties between South Korea and the United States therefore mean America is due for a return to the Korean Peninsula?

Not necessarily.

The primary difference between 2010 and 1914 is that instead of unilaterally attacking their neighbor to the North with the support of a major world power, South Korea is taking the situation to the United Nations. After the UN failed to resolve the Iraqi-American crisis in 2002-03, it seemed the UN was irrelevant to world politics. However, at this point in time, the successor to the League of Nations appears to be working exactly as intended. It has prevented unilateral action on the part of South Korea armed with full American support.

As Sec. of State Clinton corresponds with her counterparts in China, Japan, South Korea and most likely Russia this week, the tragic chain of events that resulted in World War I seem to have been averted. In 1914 the blank check issued by Germany assured Austria would take action against its neighbor which had offended it. In 2010 the same blank check issued by America to South Korea has not assured that South Korea would initiate conflict with North Korea.

But don't celebrate just yet.

The effectiveness of the UN shined forth in the first Gulf War as multinational military action was taken against Iraq, resulting in heavy loss of life on the Iraqi side and a political situation that would be only resolved 12 years later in a long and arduous war. Once it has been revealed where the other world powers stand on the Cheonan incident will we start to see what the future holds for the Korea peninsula and likely the world. Make no doubt about it, South Korea has called for punitive action against North Korea and already has the full backing of the United States. The question that remains is not whether there will be a conflict but what shape the conflict is going to take. The year 1914 shows us the worst scenario that could erupt from such a political situation, let us hope that the lessons of 2010 prove to teach otherwise.

The Militarization of Cyberspace

The US military has appointed its first senior general to direct cyber warfare – despite fears that the move marks another stage in the militarisation of cyberspace.

The newly promoted four-star general, Keith Alexander, takes charge of the Pentagon's ambitious and controversial new Cyber Command, designed to conduct virtual combat across the world's computer networks. He was appointed on Friday afternoon in a low-key ceremony at Fort Meade, in Maryland.

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Did Kim Jong Il order the attack?

WASHINGTON — A new American intelligence analysis of a deadly torpedo attack on a South Korean warship concludes that Kim Jong-il, the ailing leader of North Korea, must have authorized the torpedo assault, according to senior American officials who cautioned that the assessment was based on their sense of the political dynamics there rather than hard evidence.

The officials said they were increasingly convinced that Mr. Kim ordered the sinking of the ship, the Cheonan, to help secure the succession of his youngest son.

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Returning to Walled Cities?

I just thought this article was an interesting development of the 'War on Terror.' Apparently, Baghdad is to become a walled city yet again, echoing eras long past. It's not the infidel armies it seeks to keep out, but rather suicide bombers of Islamic origin. I find it interesting to note that as things change very much stays the same.

More here...

Is Bin Laden in Iran?

Osama bin Laden is in Iran, asserts Alan Howell Parrot, the director of The Union for the Conservation of Raptors, who for many years served as a Falconer for the rulers of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and members of Saudi Royal family. In that capacity he was a regular guest in the seasonal Falconry-hunting camps and had access to all participants. Parrot has been offering evidence of Bin Laden's sighting in Iran since November 2004 to a great number of U.S. government officials at the Department of Defense, the FBI, Senators and even to the former Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), Gen. Michael V. Hayden. Government officials who asked to remain nameless confirmed Parrot's contact with the government. Still, no one responded.

More Here...

My Comments: I found this article to be more amusing than insightful on the actual whereabouts of bin Laden. Not to mention, the tradition in the Middle East with falconry was also quite fascinating.

Though if it turned out there was more alleged evidence that bin Laden was in fact in Iran, it would serve the USA well as another reason for military action there.

Fledgling colonial power?

Chinese Navy seeks to Expand its Naval Power

YALONG BAY, China — The Chinese military is seeking to project naval power well beyond the Chinese coast, from the oil ports of the Middle East to the shipping lanes of the Pacific, where the United States Navy has long reigned as the dominant force, military officials and analysts say.

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The Next Empire

All across Africa, new tracks are being laid, highways built,ports deepened, commercial contracts signed—all on an unprecedented scale, and led by China, whose appetite for commodities seems insatiable. Do China’s grand designs promise the transformation,at last, of a star-crossed continent? Or merely its exploitation? The author travels deep into the heart of Africa, searching for answers.

More here....

My comments: Obviously China is growing in strength and their ability to project force is growing. As many of the pre-WWI colonial powers knew, a state needs a navy to project their power to the far flung corners of the earth. The first article speaks on this and the second follows up on China's commitments and interests in the former colonies of the European Empires.

However, its worth noting that the USA still stands able to project their will across the world and Russia is rapidly approaching their former strength, not to mention the EU picking up former military and economic interests remaining since the wars of decolonization. During the Cold War this great power rivalry resulted in much strife and suffering for the African nations and I expect that with the re-emergence of a multi-polar world, the plight of Africa will resume. I imagine that the US and likely Russia will seek to undermine the gains of their rivals on the continent, leading to coups and civil wars, not too dissimilar to the current state of central Asia and the Middle East.

Points of interest that caught my attention:

The article portrays China as a state better at capitalism than the West. Their offer of loans for development without strings, such as democratic elections and even more importantly Communist rule, is striking.

China isn't giving up ownership of the railroads they build. This is similar to USA ownership of the Panama Canal or British ownership of Suez in that China's national interests are tied to a physical transportation system outside of China. Should rebellion, civil war or a coup break out in one of the host countries, China will likely pressure the government, old or new, to secure Chinese interests. This may result in troops deployed and, potentially, the setting up of a regime friendly to China.

Chinese settlers are a major facet of this neo-colonialism that deserves close attention. At the moment, the article cites 3,000 Chinese settlers in Mozambique, the numbers are minuscule. But it only took less than 10% white settlers in South Africa to secure power for 90 years and racial tensions have long been the source of strife in colonies. The bit on Zambia a two-thirds of the way through the article seems to prefigure some of the potential conflicts.

Three more spying programs

The Department of Homeland Security is acknowledging the existence of three more government programs charged with spying on American citizens in the aftermath of the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks.

The programs -- Pantheon, Pathfinder and Organizational Shared Space -- used a variety of software tools to gather and analyze information about Americans, according to documents obtained by the Center for Investigative Reporting. The DHS turned over the papers in response to a December 2008 Freedom of Information Act request.

More Here...

My comment: And who knows what they're doing now...

Ukraine extends Russian naval base lease

MOSCOW -- Ukraine's new president signed a deal Wednesday that allows Russia's Black Sea Fleet to stay in the country another 25 years, moving to ease a long-standing source of tension and giving Moscow its second foreign policy victory in the former Soviet Union this month.

Viktor Yanukovych and his Russian counterpart, Dmitry Medvedev, announced the breakthrough after a hastily scheduled summit in Kharkiv, Ukraine, saying that Ukraine will extend the lease on the Russian naval base in Sevastopol to 2042 in exchange for a steep discount on purchases of Russian natural gas.

More here...

My comments: There's been speculation as to why the USA has backed off of trying to extend its influence into the Ukraine but the latest renewal of contracts stacks more evidence on the side that Ukraine will return to Russia's sphere of influence.

However, it's worth noting the base has only been leased for 25 years, which is an unusually short amount of time. While Ukraine might be gravitating towards Russia, the signing of a 25 year lease rather than something like a 99 year lease indicates that Ukraine is still, somewhat, in control of its future.

For a completely different view, check out La Russophobe's article on the same thing.

Report confirms it was a North Korean torpedo....

Last month’s deadly sinking of a South Korean naval ship was caused by a North Korean torpedo, a news report said today, adding to pressure on the South’s President. Lee Myung Bak, to respond to one of the worst acts of military provocation since the Korean War.

The South Korean defence ministry declined to comment on the claim by the Yonhap news agency, the latest in a series of reports suggesting that the mysterious sinking of the naval corvette, Cheonan, on March 26 was a deliberate and unprovoked attack by North Korea.

More here...

My comments: It's starting to seem unlikely that this event will lead to war. The article indicates that South Korea's President is struggling to come up with a solution to the problem of North Korean aggression.

While it is the political goal of South Korea to unify the peninsula under one, their own, government, I expect that a costly and risky war with a nuclear power is not the preferred mehod of achieving such unification. I suspect that they are hoping for a situation of political collapse that echoes German re-unification in 1989.

Why has the media gone silent over CIA killings of USA citizens?

David Cole, writing in the May 3, 2010, edition of the Nation, notices a curious silence about the Obama administration’s recent decision to green-light the targeted killing of Anwar al-Awlaki, an American citizen hiding in Yemen who has allegedly encouraged and even planned terrorist attacks against Americans. “In our peculiar post-9/11 world,” he writes, “it is apparently less controversial to kill a suspect in cold blood than to hold him in preventive detention.”

It almost (but not quite) looks like an inversion of our World War II–era policy. Some American soldiers at the time thought it less of a hassle, and no doubt more satisfying, to shoot captured Germans than to herd them off battlefields into prisons. That was not, however, what they were ordered to do. Captured enemy combatants were to be treated decently and held until the war ended. It was the right thing to do, even in a war against Nazi Germany. So that’s what they did, at least most of the time.

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Potential Foul Play in Polish Air Disaster?

The Russian government prevented the Polish president's plane from landing four times to divert him from a ceremony to mark the 70th anniversary of the Katyn massacre, according to an MP.

Artur Gorski said the Russians 'came up with some dubious reasons' that the aircraft couldn't land because they feared President Leck Kaczynski's presence would overshadow a similar event hosted by the Russian prime minister a few days before.

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My comments: At this point, the evidence for Russian foul play is scarce but Russian benefits from a leadership disaster in Russia's former satellite state could potentially be high. Though its worth mentioning that Europe and the USA could also benefit from this. More on this as it develops.

Russian supported rebellion in Kyrgyzstan

"Kyrgyzstan’s self-proclaimed new leadership said on Thursday that Russia had helped to oust President Kurmanbek Bakiyev, and that they aimed to close a U.S. airbase that has irritated Moscow.

Their comments set Wednesday’s overthrow of Mr. Bakiyev, who fled the capital Bishkek as crowds stormed government buildings, firmly in the context of superpower rivalry in Central Asia."

More here...

My Comments: Take a look at the map and notice Kyrgyzstan's proximity to the Afghanistan. It's no wonder the US might lure the small nation into its sphere of influence with promises of aid and support in exchange for a small air base for use in operations in Afghanistan.

But lets zoom out for a second.

Kyrgyzstan is also within very close proximity to Russia, a world power and was a former Soviet Republic of the Soviet Union. In placing an air base in Kyrgyzstan the US under the Bush II administration made a threatening move to Russian security, and now Russia is using its growing influence, and a weakened US influence in the region, to claim the territory back.

However, it should be noted that the air base was a transit base, as opposed to a base supporting war aircraft or housing troops and it was primarily used to pour men into Afghanistan. Furthermore, the Obama administration failed to negotiate new terms for the base and it was scheduled for closing in 2009. Apparently, negotiations had been ongoing since 2007.

Russia is on the rise again to secure it's borders. With a Moscow led Economic Union in the works for 2012, including Kazakhstan as a keystone member, Kyrgyzstan's neighbor, and the Obama administration's "reset" of relations with Russia, its no wonder Putin is seeking to re-establish Russian dominance in its former Soviet Republics.

US Foreign Aid and the CIA (part 1)

Like the intelligence arms of other major nations, the American CIA found it crucial to use a multitude of fronts -- institutional disguises and intermediaries -- in order to effectively pursue its covert operations. The CIA actually had some specialization in this tactic from the beginning. The Agency was largely founded and staffed by Wall Street elites who were very familiar with using shell companies to manipulate or hide assets.

In this context, a front is an organization of some kind whose public mission has no official relationship to US intelligence. Secretly, however, the CIA will use the front as cover to accomplish clandestine objectives. Note that several organizations hosting a CIA presence may be legitimate, fairly independent, and generally unaware of the fact. Whereas front businesses which the CIA virtually owns are what the US Senate Church Committee exposed as 'proprietaries', such as the most infamous example from the Vietnam era: the drug-smuggling Air America company (for an introduction to the CIA-drug connection, refer to this or this, or dozens of other articles and books). A more recent example of a CIA proprietary front is the firm Brewster-Jennings & Associates, which was exposed in 2003 during the Plame-Yellowcake Affair.

Since its inception with the signing of the National Security Act of 1947, the CIA has used thousands of fronts right to the present day. As a matter of course, the organizations selected to be fronts naturally have activities in foreign countries. They include various corporations, diplomatic embassies, other agencies of the federal government, non-profit charities, private NGOs, media organizations, and so forth.

A large bureaucratic organization long-suspected and finally proven to act as a CIA front is USAID, or the United States Agency for International Development. Run by the State Department, USAID is the main federal entity responsible for dispensing foreign aid.

Each year, USAID allocates billions of dollars in funding to selected nations across the globe. To most American taxpayers, it is an organization to be proud of. Indeed, many of its projects have produced positive humanitarian results and local employment, even if the projects are considered diplomatic rewards and instruments of US foreign policy. Nonetheless, a handful of the projects and a very small number of the personnel are in fact CIA-related, with missions far outside of the official mandate of USAID. These missions are launched to forward the blunt geopolitical interests of the US government (and undoubtedly to forward the special interests that influence that government). The missions have involved instances of corruption, subversion, espionage, and horrible violence. Some will be described here, and other modern examples will be described in Part Two.

Skeptics of the theorized CIA-USAID connection fell silent when, in 2007, the Agency itself released thousands of top secret documents -- the "Family Jewels", as they are called -- which included descriptions of its close working relationship with USAID. This admission is fascinating. While partially censored, the primary documents plainly show that CIA officers had worked abroad under USAID cover. The Office of Public Safety (OPS), a USAID bureau disbanded in 1974 by Congress for its inappropriate activities, served as a front for training and arming foreign police in counterinsurgency methods.

The formerly top secret documents show that, between 1963 and 1974, thousands of police officers and troops were trained by the OPS arm of USAID. In turn, the recipients then trained hundreds of thousands of others in total. It doesn't sound too heinous until we learn that the countries receiving the weapons and counter-insurgency training were very repressive police states in the process of cracking down hard on their own citizens, unions, and rebel groups. Training involved spying, torture, explosives, assassination, riot-control, and so forth.

Wikipedia has a toned-down yet still informative article on the matter. Excerpts:

The United States has a long history of providing police aid to Latin American countries. In the 1960s the U.S. Agency for International Development's (USAID) Office of Public Safety (OPS) provided Latin American police forces with millions of dollars worth of weapons and trained thousands of Latin American police officers. In the late 1960s, such programs came under media and congressional scrutiny because the U.S.-provided equipment and personnel were linked to cases of torture, murder and "disappearances" in Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay.

In Washington, D.C., the Office of Public Safety had remained immune to public embarrassment as it went about two of its chief functions: allowing the CIA to plant men with the local police in sensitive places around the world; and after careful observation on their home territory, bringing to the United States prime candidates for enrollment as CIA employees.

The OPS had formed a million policemen in the Third World. Ten thousands of them had undertook training courses in the US. $150 millions' worth in material had been sent to foreign police forces.

The massive training-arming program in Central and South America led to a hemispheric-wide human rights disaster. It escalated rapidly to the death squad era of Operation Condor. The destructive, multi-faceted operation was ultimately supervised by leaders in the CIA and US National Security Council, especially the-then Secretary of State, Henry Kissinger.

OPS police-training teams and 'aid projects' were not only sent to several repressive nations in Latin America, but also to South Vietnam, Iran, Taiwan, Greece, and others. According to award-winning journalist John Pilger, apparently USAID funds were even spent by the millions to assist the Thais and genocidal Khmer Rouge in building roads to lucrative gem mines.

Basically everywhere the US was propping up a repressive, corrupt client-state in the name of anti-communism, the USAID-CIA connection could be found. Some of the most brutal pages of Cold War history can be found in the Phoenix program in South Vietnam and the crack-downs of SAVAK, the secret police of then US ally, the Shah of Iran.

The Sears Tower Set-up

In June of 2006, seven Florida men were charged with plotting to destroy FBI offices in Miami and to destroy the Sears Tower in Chicago. FBI Director Muller informed the nation that his agency had successfully interdicted a catastrophic 'home-grown' terrorist plot linked to Al Qaeda. No doubt, if terrorists had managed to bring down the tallest skyscraper in America, standing at 1,451 feet (442 m), the human and material costs would have been immeasurable.

The problem with this heinous story is that virtually none of it is true. The seven suspects didn't so much as own a fire-cracker between them, let alone any explosives or any knowledge whatsoever on how to destroy a colossal 110-story building. They were so poor that they didn't even have the means to travel to Chicago, and didn't have a car to drive about Miami looking for targets. They actually hailed from Liberty City, the black neighbourhood of housing projects outside of downtown Miami. Thus in the press they were swiftly nicknamed the "Liberty City Seven" or LC7.

It gets worse. Just like the Bronx Bombers (see Part 1 and Part 2), the LC7 were infiltrated, bribed to consider committing terror plots, and finally ensnared thanks to two undercover FBI informants. Funded and directed by the FBI, the two Middle Eastern "confidential witnesses" presented themselves to the LC7 as members of Al-Qaeda. They were no doubt assigned to the LC7 because they stood out like a sore thumb of odd balls in the area.

The members of the LC7 — five Afro-American citizens, one legal Haitian immigrant, and one Haitian illegal alien — defined themselves as "Black Muslims". Some wore turbans and hid their faces. Their leader, Narseal Batiste, was described as a Moses-like figure, walking the streets in a long robe and carrying a wooden staff. Known as "Prince Manna" or "Brother Naz", Batiste called his cult-like group the "Seas of David". He preached a blend of religious and political views that included angry criticism of the US government. The deeper reality was that the Seas of David was a ragtag group of mainly unemployed, down-and-out, wanna-be rebels. Some were homeless; some arguably had mental problems. Their background interests included martial arts, carpentry, street-preaching, community work, petty crimes, and smoking lots of marijuana. Above all, they were in need of money to scrape by.

Batiste couldn't believe his luck when the two FBI informants — Abbas al-Saidi and Elie Assad — provided them with a warehouse all to their own, rent-free, as a new base of operations. The warehouse was named the 'Temple'. Of course, the Temple happened to be rigged full of hidden audio and video surveillance equipment. Here, after almost a year of under-cover infiltration, al-Saidi and Assad offered the LC7 $50,000 to swear allegiance to Al-Qaeda and begin a new life as terrorists. Beclouded in marijuana smoke, unknowingly bugged, the LC7 finally agreed, swore their oath, and took the money. Batiste was caught on tape saying he admired bin Laden's 'work', and also wished to kill 'American devils'. Batiste was given a rental car and a camera to take pictures of certain Miami buildings. Describing himself as "financially exhausted", Batiste made lofty requests for black uniforms, squad cars, guns, and knee-high boots for his 'Islamic Army' of six men. The informant bought them the boots. The rest of the shopping list was promised for later.

Batiste's father, a Christian pastor, said his son was "not in his right mind" and needed psychiatric assistance. Other family members and neighbourhood acquaintances of the LC7 said they were poor, misguided, and yet not dangerous. Some witnesses said they were helpful to others in the community.

Whatever the case, the FBI raided the Temple and dragged away its occupants. The corporate media hyped the foiled plot, caught in its "planning phase", as possibly being on the order of 9/11. No firearms or explosives were found, although a few machetes, hatchets, and some amounts of marijuana were. When asked how serious the plot was, the FBI publicly conceded that it was "more aspirational than operational", adding that Al-Qaeda was in fact not involved. Nevertheless, the LC7 were charged with giving material support to Al-Qaeda, conspiring to destroy federal buildings, and for conspiring to "levy a full ground war" against the USA. After two trials ending in a hung jury and then a third trial, six of the seven LC7 members were sentenced with long prison terms. Defense attorneys plan to launch a fourth trial. All along the defense argued that no such plots could have been realized without the involvement of the government; and that several of the LC7 knew nothing of the terror plans, and had neither means nor knowledge to commit them. Furthermore, Batiste and some others weren't actually going to commit the terrorism they bragged of, but were in fact trying to con the FBI informants of cash and equipment.

Between them, FBI informants Al-Saidi and Assad received $120,000 to $130,000 for their services in "saving" Miami offices and the Sears Tower from obliteration. To make matters even more outrageous, both informants had checkered pasts (the knowledge of which withheld by the judges). One failed a FBI lie detector test and yet against protocol was still allowed to operate. The other extorted $7,000 from the man who raped his girl friend. Both informants also had histories with illegal drugs and both did jail time for assaulting their own girl friends.

Source Articles: Global Research, Miami New Times, Mahalo, Prison Planet, Washington Post 2006, Washington Post 2008, MotherJones, CNN, Wikipedia, LA Times

Naval battle off the coast of Korea

The sinking of a South Korean naval vessel Friday is raising fears that North Korea is once again rattling its sabers, though there is so far no evidence that Pyongyang had a role in the incident.

The South Korean ship, navigating in disputed waters in the Yellow Sea, was sunk Friday, and perhaps dozens of sailors were killed. But the cause of the sinking is unclear at time of writing.The South Korean ship, navigating in disputed waters in the Yellow sea.

More here.

My Comments: I'm starting to become of the opinion that North Korea's days are numbered. Very few of the great powers have anything to gain from North Korea any more and ruling party is losing power. Personally, I think the crisis point will come with Kim Jong-Il's death and succession of his son, who does not nearly have as much political clout as his father. While its hard to say what will likely happen after Jong-Il's death, one thing seems certain: this relic conflict of the Cold War will likely end.

Over the next couple of posts, I'm going to take a look at the history of North Korea to show how it's value to the great powers has deteriorated.

Is China's Politburo spoiling for a showdown with America?

China has succumbed to hubris. It has mistaken the soft diplomacy of Barack Obama for weakness, mistaken the US credit crisis for decline, and mistaken its own mercantilist bubble for ascendancy. There are echoes of Anglo-German spats before the First World War, when Wilhelmine Berlin so badly misjudged the strategic balance of power and over-played its hand.

More here...

Comments: Personally, I'm quite wary of the Chinese-American rivalry and, what many scholars and commentators point to, its path to conflict and possibly war. While the US and China may publicly differ on a number of subjects I think that these two countries have far more in common than they, or their people, would like to admit. Furthermore, they're economically dependent on each other as this article has astutely pointed out.

The article offers an interesting and largely accurate analysis of the current relationship, but comparing China to Wilhelmine Germany is perhaps too far at this point in time.

Russia's economic union

The Soviet Union is gradually being rebuilt as Vladimir Putin eyes a return to the Kremlin. The man who declared the collapse of the Communist state to be the “greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century” appears determined to forge a new empire.

The latest evidence emerged in a suggestion by Igor Shuvalov, First Deputy Prime Minister in Mr Putin’s Government, that Russia may abolish the rouble and create a common currency with Kazakhstan and Belarus.

The three states have already established a customs union and plan to form a single economic market by 2012. Mr Shuvalov said that he would not rule a currency union as “the next logical step”, adding that it would be modelled on the euro.

Read more here...

My comments: This article caught my attention because it seems to indicate things to come int he diplomatic arena. Russia is on the rebound and the world is shifting to a multi-polar diplomatic arrangement and from what this article indicates, economic union is replacing the political union. The question that lingers in my mind is: where does that leave politically based unions such as United States?