Pax Americana?

In response to the article here...

This whole notion of a Pax Americana, I think, is a flawed one. Was the 20th century truly the American century? Hardly. 1/5 of the century was spent in isolationism, and half of it in direct competition with the Soviet Union in which the USA repeatedly failed to win in Korea, China and S.E. Asia. Ultimately influence in Iran would be lost as well. The whole of Asia minus some islands off the coast and, maybe, Pakistan, was outside the influence of the USA. Influence in Africa was hardly solidified and only half of Europe was ever, barely somewhat, in league with the USA. How exactly a century could be defined as American when 80 miles offshore, its archenemy is deploying nuclear warheads?

In short, there never was an American century. Calling the 20th century the American Century is like pushing the Pax Romana back 200 years to when Carthage was still around. There was a period of time from 1990-2010, 80 years short of a century, when America stood unopposed by any major power and this short period was more the product of the vacuum effect of the collapse of the Soviet Union. A vacuum being more suitably filled by the regional powers who's backyard it is in.

The rise of China and India, the competition of the EU and resurrection of Russia are a return to the normalcy of a competitive world. The 'American century' was a mere 20 year hiccup where the USA faced no real competition and these characteristics can not be applied across the span of the 20th century.

China in the footsteps of the Kaiser

I thought this was a fascinating read and generally I agree with Mr. Mead's conclusions.

"Is China the best friend of American power?

Beijing’s recent missteps in Asia — moving ahead with reactor sales to troubled Pakistan and crudely threatening Japan over the arrest of a Chinese fishing captain — are swiftly solidifying America’s Asian alliances. The new Japanese government came into office hoping to rebalance Japan’s foreign policy and reduce tensions with China. That dream is now dead. And China’s deepening relationship with Pakistan, intended in part as a counter to America’s nuclear opening to India, is driving Asia’s other emerging nuclear power closer than ever into the arms of America (and Japan). South Korea, once drifting peacefully toward China, has moved back towards the United States following China’s support for Pyongyang after the sinking of a South Korean naval boat.

In all this there is one clear theme. America isn’t containing China. China is containing itself. As China’s economy grows and its military develops new capacities, it is looking for ways to turn that potential power into actual power over events. In the past, China has tried to attract its neighbors into its orbit with sweeteners like trade deals and aid."

Read the rest here.

France and her colonies

The days of the French flag flying over foreign capitals and colored maps may be gone, but the old colonial empires linger on in a strange way. France launched a counter terrorism operation in Niger, a former colony, to rescue seven hostages from a group that calls itself Al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb. While this is far from the military levels seen during France's wars of decolonization or the current American operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, it is none-the-less significant as it shows the continued policy of French military intervention in its former African colonies. Since 1960, there have been 46 French military operations in its former African colonies, and the former empire continues to maintain bases across its former colonies. How this recently sparked conflict will play out against Al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb remains to be seen.

On the recent events in Niger.

On the impact of Turkey's Referendum

This article looks into the impact of Turkey's recently passed referendum to argue that true democracy has finally begun in Turkey in place of what the author refers to "Facade Democracy."

http://www.todayszaman.com/tz-web/columnists-221677-the-end-of-facade-democracy-in-turkey.html

Big changes for Turkey

The above video breaks down the newly accepted changes in Turkey's constitution.

Japanese-Chinese relations souring

And its all over Fishing boat. But often this little trivialities simple scratch the surface of deeper resentment and anxiety between two nations. According to the article, this is tied to Senkaku Islands dispute between Japan and China.

Read More.

Hezbollah South of the Border?

Well, that's what a certain Representative in Congress wants to know. Is Hezbollah operating in Mexico? She gives a line of evidence pointing to the possibility, such as Mexican Drug Cartels using car bombs and Hezbollah agents purchasing large amounts of drugs from FARC in Columbia, though nothing seems conclusive yet. The article is good food for thought because the War on Terror just might be getting a little too close to home.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2010/sep/1/hezbollah-car-bombs-on-our-border/

Railroad Diplomacy

Apparently China is planning a high speed railroad to Bangkok. The link will connect Bangkok to a junction in Laos and then into South China and ultimately Beijing. Generally speaking, transportation is a symbol and reality of power. As they used to say, Mille viae ducunt homines per saecula Romam.

Read the article on Chinese Railroad Diplomacy here.

A European Military

Well, not exactly. But it's close. It seems that Britain and France will be sharing aircraft carriers if all goes according to a plan currently being drafted by Cameron and Sarkozy. The details must be fascinating as I'm not entirely sure how such a plan would work out. I think that it must presume peace for the foreseeable future and that the only reason either power even needs carriers is for peacetime power projection and to not look like a couple of dunces next to the other world powers. It's a gamble and I'mnot entirely certain how it's going to work out.

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/3118476/UK-and-France-tobr-share-aircraft-carriers.html

Lessons from China's economic ascendecy

I thought this article really summed up the important facts regarding China's overtaking of Japan as the world's number 2 economy. A number of lessons are going to be learned from China's rise, and even more mis-lessons are going to be taken from it as well. The most important mis-lesson is: Authoritarianism works.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/08/29/AR2010082902898.html

More on Venezuela

Iconic Photos has the banned image of Venezuela's Morgue. Read and see it here.

Venezuela more deadly than Iraq or Mexico

Well, according to this article it is. The interesting difference between the two are that in Iraq and Mexico, the murder rates are accompanied by political instability whereas in Venezuela, the government has a much tighter control over its opposition.

Read about it here.

The Taiwan-China issue

Is the Taiwan-China dispute heating up? Recent releases from the US military have stated a growing concern for China's military endeavors and concerns over the sovereignty of Taiwan is growing. This short article on what the USA needs to do if it is to avoid conflict with China over Taiwan and I whole-hearted agree. The primary problem is American ambiguity over the status of Taiwan and by not committing to its sovereignty the USA is inviting China to take a chance to regain its lost province.

5 barriers to a Russian-Western partnership

I thought this was an interesting read coming out of the Moscow Times. Essentially it works though the main barriers between Russian and western cooperation, highlighting a number of items which this blog has covered. Such as, the NATO expansion in eastern Europe and attempts by the USA to dominate the former states of the Soviet Union, Kyrgyzstan or Georgia for example.

Read the article here.

Arms Sales and Peace in the Middle East

This article caught my attention over at RealClearWorld.com.

To sum it up, it details the pending sale of arms to Saudi Arabia as part of a new US policy to build up regional alliances to counter an Iranian threat. It also makes mention of the initial Israeli hostility to such a sale, fearing that the US weapons could be used against Israel, rather than Iran. However, Israel has backed down its opposition in the face of a new Iranian threat, which it apparently deems far greater.

So it has occurred to me that the latest US solution to the middle eastern problem is to create a common enemy and a sort of little entente in the middle east to counter what it regards as a threat to its interests abroad.

However things aren't so pleasant in the middle east for such a 'little entente' to work out so smoothly. Recently, US-Turkish relations are souring over issues like the recent flotilla incident and the recurring Armenian Genocide bill. And in Iraq, the situation is threatening to prevent US withdrawal, after all, does the United States truly want a weak neighbor on the border with Iran? In order to prevent the problem which plagued the original Little Entente, the USA is going to need to have strong nations to work with towards a common goal, as seen with the recent strengthening of Saudi Arabia. But pulling out of Iraq too early could prove fatal and provoke conflict between the two nations which have a past. It is certainly a juggling act the USA has taken on, but whether or not it will pay off remains to be seen.

India is preparing for another war with China

Well, not immediately, but it is China they have in mind with the latest upgrades to their military. While India's primary concern is and will likely remain in counter-insurgency, they do need to be prepared for interstate conflict. Pakistan, obviously, seems to be the more likely candidate than China given their disputed occupation of Kashmir and the deteriorating situation in Islamabad. But let's not forget that China has obtained for itself a little chunk of Kashmir and Arunachal Pradesh. India needs to be prepared for China in any case.

Read the article here.

Using Google Earth to Spy on N. Korea

I thought this was an interesting site. The creators use Google Earth to create a heavily notated map of North Korea, pointing out the locations of electricity grids, anti-air batteries, railroads, ect.

Check it out here:
http://www.nkeconwatch.com/north-korea-uncovered-google-earth/

China reacts to Hanoi-Washington Deal

BEIJING: China, which has recently dominated the security situation in North Asia, appeared shaken by a surprise move by the US administration to begin negotiations for a civilian nuclear deal with Vietnam.

Washington has confirmed it in negotiation a deal with Vietnam similar to the one it has signed with India. The move has implications for India, which faced Chinese resistance to its nuclear deal with the US. India is also wary about what it regards as China's non-transparent move to sell two more nuclear reactors to Pakistan.

Read the article here...

Washington and Hanoi to reach Nuclear Agreement

"The US is said to be negotiating a controversial agreement with Vietnam to provide nuclear fuel and technology without the usual constraints on enriching uranium to prevent proliferation.

The deal has been under discussion for several months following Hanoi's announcement of plans to build 14 nuclear stations over the next 20 years, according to the Wall Street Journal."

Read the rest here...

I found this an interesting read considering the USA and Vietnam's past as well as the current situation with Iran. Apparently, the USA is willing to work with totalitarian states to spread nuclear technology. Given all the rhetoric over the past ten years (note that talks began in 2001 under Bush) you'd think such a move would never happen...

Russian Defense Spending to rise 60%!

Since Putin took control of Russia it seemed that the crumbled Soviet Empire of the 1990s was not going to last. Russia's latest move in strengthening its global position has been to increase defense spending by 60%! As anticipated, Russia is continuing to rise to take the place of the former Soviet Union.